Decision under uncertainty
Markets don't carewhat you think.
Finance and crypto trading are my professional background. They still shape how I think about risk, about being wrong and about acting without certainty. Ignaz and I share that background.
Anatomy of a position
Before the entry,the trade is decided.
Constructed example. Not a real trade, not a recommendation.
- 01
Thesis
Why here, why now. If it doesn't fit into one sentence, there is no trade.
- 02
Invalidation
The level at which the idea is simply wrong. It's set before the entry, not after the loss.
- 03
Size
Size follows from the distance to that level, not from how sure I feel. 1% risk over 4% distance is a 25% position.
- 04
Execution
At the planned level or not at all. Missing a trade costs nothing.
- 05
Exit
The plan decides, not the last candle. Moving the stop further away isn't a decision, it's a hope.
- 06
Review
Everything gets written down. A win with a bad process still counts as a mistake.
The desk
A good trade means little.The distribution decides.
150 simulated traders, 150 trades each, same rules, different luck. Move the three numbers.
- Expectancy per trade
- +0.35 R
- Median outcome
- 2.75 ×
- Typical worst drawdown
- −17%
- Paths losing half at some point
- 0%
Simulation with random numbers. Not my numbers, not a forecast.
The arithmetic of a loss
Plain arithmetic, the same for everyone.
- 01Analysis
A view is nota forecast.
Analysis doesn't tell me what will happen. It tells me what I currently believe, why, and what would have to change for me to be wrong.
- 02Psychology
The hard partsits in the chair.
The chart is the easy part. Fear, greed and the need to be right don't show up on it, and they're usually what makes the decision.
- 03Uncertainty
You decideanyway.
You never get all the information. Waiting for certainty is also a decision, and usually an expensive one.
What this page is not
- No returns
- No signals
- No strategies for sale
- No course
Markets and companies
A market tells you within hours that you were wrong. A company takes longer. The discipline is the same.
This page describes a personal perspective. It is not investment advice, not an offer and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. All examples and simulations are constructed. Trading crypto assets carries a high risk of loss.